Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 23.220272 25.271025 27.485382 30.065289 33.002698 36.259894 40.168324
2025-12-28 19.815752 22.597196 25.811577 29.844991 34.834530 40.891551 48.939618
2026-01-04 17.583715 20.772701 24.655988 29.826977 36.682648 45.691693 58.847417
2026-01-11 16.095415 19.565578 23.976802 30.154112 38.857776 51.156446 70.828443
2026-01-18 14.753750 18.340410 23.057758 29.940024 40.144727 55.504872 82.205200
2026-01-25 13.684570 17.334312 22.275622 29.745634 41.337110 59.829475 94.655277
2026-02-01 12.845310 16.543078 21.679932 29.699878 42.680874 64.574485 109.240838
2026-02-08 12.095164 15.800128 21.062902 29.515811 43.726480 68.959682 124.574734
2026-02-15 11.433656 15.124000 20.470460 29.279594 44.613112 73.191523 141.140371
2026-02-22 10.852300 14.517005 19.921752 29.037214 45.426340 77.419027 159.445785
2026-03-01 10.368355 14.017277 19.490528 28.930983 46.450658 82.273458 181.648672
2026-03-08 9.916918 13.534664 19.044400 28.744036 47.280369 86.885436 205.653102
2026-03-15 9.738422 13.464847 19.260533 29.759311 50.678609 98.349775 259.590229
2026-03-22 9.317791 12.993432 18.789853 29.492356 51.432568 103.738593 297.156664
2026-03-29 8.975723 12.625197 18.462327 29.454478 52.670020 110.765799 348.365452
2026-04-05 8.723707 12.384671 18.329798 29.767517 54.732085 120.736998 425.482279
2026-04-12 8.402669 12.013813 17.947109 29.553972 55.555798 127.443305 495.932346
2026-04-19 8.109698 11.673076 17.593450 29.361784 56.401178 134.555792 581.833855
2026-04-26 7.860840 11.392114 17.325977 29.316320 57.600740 143.319328 699.161623
2026-05-03 7.609044 11.093590 17.007959 29.135394 58.432955 151.206381 831.972055
2026-05-10 7.366686 10.799516 16.680135 28.903389 59.100160 158.836301 989.620822
2026-05-17 7.138978 10.520073 16.362793 28.665372 59.719351 166.628048 1184.408613
2026-05-24 6.943244 10.286734 16.117090 28.561051 60.696382 176.410904 1464.160226